The SARS crisis had a momentous impact on the
performance of the Canadian Accommodation industry in 2003. Occupancy
plummeted from 62% in 2002 to 59% in 2003. Average rates dropped
2.6% to $112.
At a national level, our forecasts for 2004 reflect
a recovery of the demand lost due to SARS, with demand levels up
5% over actual 2003 levels. With a further 1.3% increase in supply
in 2004, occupancy will improve to 61%, but will still be below
2002 occupancy of 62%. Average daily rates are forecast to increase
by 5.0% in 2004, as the market recovers from deep discounting,
with ADR recuperating to 2002 levels. With demand outpacing supply,
occupancy will grow, getting back to 2002 levels in 2005, and average
daily rate is projected to reach $120 by 2005.
|
MAJOR URBAN MARKET OCCUPANCY PERFORMANCE
|
|
|
2002
Actual
|
2003
Actual
|
2004
Forecast
|
2005
Projection
|
|
Vancouver
|
63%
|
62%
|
65%
|
66%
|
|
Calgary
|
64%
|
61%
|
64%
|
66%
|
|
Edmonton
|
72%
|
61%
|
62%
|
64%
|
|
Winnipeg
|
62%
|
60%
|
61%
|
62%
|
|
Toronto
|
64%
|
57%
|
63%
|
64%
|
|
Niagara Falls
|
57%
|
50%
|
52%
|
52%
|
|
Ottawa
|
65%
|
62%
|
63%
|
64%
|
|
Montreal
|
68%
|
65%
|
66%
|
67%
|
|
Quebec City
|
65%
|
60%
|
62%
|
63%
|
|
Halifax/Dartmouth
|
73%
|
73%
|
73%
|
72%
|
|
CANADA
|
62%
|
59%
|
61%
|
62%
|
|
MAJOR URBAN MARKET AVERAGE DAILY RATE PERFORMANCE
|
|
|
2002
Actual
|
2003
Actual
|
2004
Forecast
|
2005
Projection
|
|
Vancouver
|
$118
|
$113
|
$117
|
$120
|
|
Calgary
|
$107
|
$105
|
$108
|
$110
|
|
Edmonton
|
$91
|
$95
|
$99
|
$102
|
|
Winnipeg
|
$92
|
$92
|
$94
|
$96
|
|
Toronto
|
$130
|
$118
|
$128
|
$132
|
|
Niagara Falls
|
$131
|
$120
|
$126
|
$130
|
|
Ottawa
|
$125
|
$124
|
$124
|
$126
|
|
Montreal
|
$138
|
$136
|
$139
|
$143
|
|
Quebec City
|
$145
|
$139
|
$142
|
$146
|
|
Halifax/Dartmouth
|
$114
|
$119
|
$122
|
$125
|
|
CANADA
|
$116
|
$112
|
$116
|
$120
|
|
MAJOR URBAN MARKET REVPAR PERFORMANCE
|
|
|
2002
Actual
|
2003
Actual
|
2004
Forecast
|
2005
Projection
|
|
Vancouver
|
$74
|
$70
|
$76
|
$80
|
|
Calgary
|
$68
|
$64
|
$69
|
$73
|
|
Edmonton
|
$66
|
$58
|
$62
|
$65
|
|
Winnipeg
|
$57
|
$55
|
$58
|
$60
|
|
Toronto
|
$84
|
$68
|
$81
|
$85
|
|
Niagara Falls
|
$75
|
$60
|
$66
|
$68
|
|
Ottawa
|
$81
|
$77
|
$77
|
$80
|
|
Montreal
|
$94
|
$88
|
$92
|
$95
|
|
Quebec City
|
$94
|
$83
|
$88
|
$92
|
|
Halifax/Dartmouth
|
$83
|
$87
|
$89
|
$90
|
|
CANADA
|
$72
|
$66
|
$71
|
$74
|
Toronto
was "ground zero" of
the SARS crisis, with occupancy levels plunging to 57% and average
daily
rates to $118 in 2003. Year to date results indicate that the market
should recover to 63% occupancy in 2004. This growth is supported
by strong domestic corporate and leisure travel as well as the
recovery of much of the meeting conference and group tour travel
lost in 2003. By 2005, Toronto is expected to have recovered from
the short term impact of the SARS crisis with occupancy of 64%
and an average daily rate of $132, but will still be well below
pre-9/11 levels of occupancy.
Halifax remains the brightest spot in the Canadian
accommodation industry. This market maintained occupancy levels
in 2003 at 73%, in the absence of supply additions. Occupancy levels
are expected to hold in 2004 and decline slightly in 2005 as supply
levels increase by 3.5%. Rates are expected to increase to $89
in 2004 and $90 in 2005.
Brenda York, Consultant
PKF Consulting
