SARS continued to take its toll on the
Canadian accommodation industry in June with national
rooms revenue down by $136 million, a 74% increase over
the impacts in April and May. Rooms revenue losses
through the 2nd Quarter
totalled $318 million, with total accommodation industry
losses from all sources now approaching $500 million. While
the impacts in Toronto continued to be high ($41 million
in June compared to $33 million in April and $37 million
in May), the impacts throughout the rest of the country
rose from $59 million in April and $53 in May to $95 million
in June. In an attempt to assist the industry in
their planning efforts during these difficult times, we
have prepared preliminary forecasts for the balance of
2003 and an Outlook for 2004.
At a national level, our forecasts
for 2003 reflect a drop in occupancy of 3 points to
59% and a rate decline from $115 in 2002 to $114 in 2003. On
a national basis, after devastating impacts in the 2nd Quarter,
the 2003 projections reflect further demand loss over
the 3rd Quarter, but to a lesser degree, with
a minor “recovery” in
the 4th Quarter.
It is expected that much of the demand lost
as a result of SARS and the Iraq War, will be recovered in
2004. The recovery in demand levels will be enhanced
by modest economic growth. Moderate supply increases
however, will offset some of this demand growth, with national
occupancy recovering to 61% and average daily rates to $117. Our
projections for 2004 reflect demand improving to 2000 levels,
but with supply having increased by 6% over the four-year
period, occupancy levels are projected to be 4 points below
2000 levels.
Major Urban Market Occupancy
Performance |
| |
2000 Actual |
2001 Actual |
2002 Actual |
2003 Projection |
2004 Forecast |
| Vancouver |
65% |
63% |
62% |
60% |
62% |
| Calgary |
65% |
64% |
64% |
60% |
64% |
| Edmonton |
63% |
67% |
72% |
63% |
64% |
| Winnipeg |
63% |
60% |
61% |
60% |
61% |
| Toronto |
71% |
66% |
64% |
55% |
62% |
| Niagara Falls |
62% |
55% |
58% |
53% |
53% |
| Ottawa |
74% |
68% |
65% |
63% |
63% |
| Montreal |
71% |
68% |
68% |
66% |
68% |
| Quebec City |
68% |
63% |
65% |
62% |
64% |
| Halifax/Dartmouth |
74% |
73% |
73% |
72% |
73% |
| CANADA |
65% |
62% |
62% |
59% |
61% |
Major Urban
Market Average Daily Rate Performance |
| |
2000 Actual |
2001 Actual |
2002 Actual |
2003 Projection |
2004 Forecast |
| Vancouver |
$120 |
$121 |
$121 |
$119 |
$122 |
| Calgary |
$112 |
$106 |
$107 |
$106 |
$108 |
| Edmonton |
$87 |
$94 |
$91 |
$96 |
$98 |
| Winnipeg |
$93 |
$96 |
$95 |
$96 |
$96 |
| Toronto |
$128 |
$129 |
$128 |
$119 |
$128 |
| Niagara Falls |
$113 |
$131 |
$132 |
$129 |
$133 |
| Ottawa |
$121 |
$127 |
$125 |
$125 |
$126 |
| Montreal |
$124 |
$133 |
$138 |
$137 |
$139 |
| Quebec City |
$126 |
$139 |
$145 |
$144 |
$147 |
| Halifax/Dartmouth |
$108 |
$111 |
$114 |
$117 |
$120 |
| CANADA |
$111 |
$114 |
$115 |
$114 |
$117 |
Major Urban
Market RevPAR Performance |
|
2000 Actual |
2001 Actual |
2002 Actual |
2003 Projection |
2004 Forecast |
| Vancouver |
$78 |
$76 |
$75 |
$71 |
$76 |
| Calgary |
$73 |
$68 |
$68 |
$64 |
$69 |
| Edmonton |
$55 |
$62 |
$66 |
$60 |
$63 |
| Winnipeg |
$59 |
$57 |
$58 |
$57 |
$59 |
| Toronto |
$91 |
$85 |
$82 |
$65 |
$79 |
| Niagara Falls |
$70 |
$73 |
$76 |
$68 |
$70 |
| Ottawa |
$90 |
$87 |
$81 |
$79 |
$79 |
| Montreal |
$88 |
$90 |
$94 |
$90 |
$95 |
| Quebec City |
$86 |
$88 |
$94 |
$89 |
$94 |
| Halifax/Dartmouth |
$80 |
$81 |
$83 |
$84 |
$88 |
| CANADA |
$72 |
$71 |
$71 |
$67 |
$71 |
In 2003, the Canadian hotel industry is
expected to realize room revenue losses of $470 million
or in excess of $700 million in top line revenue. Geopolitical
reasons, and to a much greater extent, SARS will continue
to impact growth in the 3rd and 4th Quarters
of 2003, however losses will not be as significant as those
realized in the 2nd quarter.
Brenda York, Consultant
PKF Consulting
