pKF consulting 2003 market outlook

 

National Market Outlook

The aftermath of 9/11, a softening economy and a decrease in both business and leisure travel, carried into 2002. As a result, PKF's expectation of accommodation demand recovery to 2000 levels did not materialize. With 2002 demand growth of only 1.2%, occupied room nights nationally were still 1.3% below 2000 levels. With a 1.5% increase in supply, 2002 ended at a 61.9% occupancy and an ADR of $115.46 nationally, reflecting a modest RevPar increase of 0.7%.

At a national level, our forecasts for 2003 reflect a 2% growth in demand, outpacing supply growth of 1.4%. Occupancy levels are expected to remain at 62%, with demand moderately ahead of 2001 levels. 2003 average daily rates are forecast to increase by about 2.3% to $118.

NATIONAL ACCOMMODATION MARKET   2000 Actual 2001 Actual 2002 Actual 2003 PKF Forecast Supply (000's) 349 355 361 366 % Growth 3.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% Occupancy 65% 62% 62% 62% % Demand Growth 1.9% -2.0% 1.2% 2.0% ADR $111 $114 $115 $118 % Growth 5.2% 2.6% 1.1% 2.3% RevPar $72 $71 $71 $74 % Growth 3.6% -1.3% 0.7% 2.9%

Major Market Outlook

Our projections for individual markets reflect our general view of demand recovery, but are also reflective of the specific supply and demand factors impacting each market.

2003 PKF Outlook by Major Market Occupancy & ADR City 2001 Actual 2002 Actual 2003 Outlook Greater Vancouver 63.3% $120.57 62.4% $120.83 62% $122 Calgary 64.1% $105.86 64.2% $106.66 65% $109 Edmonton 66.6% $93.71 72.3% $91.24 67% $94 Winnipeg 60.0% $95.58 61.0% $95.26 61% $96 Greater Toronto Area 65.7% $128.71 63.9% $128.46 64% $132 Ottawa 68.3% $127.03 64.7% $124.85 65% $129 Niagara Falls 55.5% $131.06 57.8% $131.74 56% $135 Greater Montreal 67.8% $133.36 68.4% $137.76 70% $139 Quebec City 63.4% $138.50 64.5% $145.32 66% $150 Halifax/Dartmouth 73.0% $110.85 72.8 $114.16 73% $117 CANADA 62.1% $114.20 61.9% $115.46 62% $118