Pannell Kerr Forster is pleased to present
our 2002 Outlook for the major urban accommodation markets
in Canada. Current industry performance is based
on the information available through our National Trends
database, which monitors the rate and occupancy performance
of over 160,000 rooms on a monthly basis. The accompanying
projections are based on our knowledge of the various supply
and demand factors impacting each of these individual markets.
Occupancy
Rates in Major Urban Markets |
| City |
2000 Actual |
2001 Actual |
2001 Pre-9/11 Forecast |
2002 Projection |
| Vancouver |
65% |
63% |
66% |
65% |
| Calgary |
65% |
64% |
65% |
64% |
| Edmonton |
63% |
67% |
69% |
66% |
| Winnipeg |
63% |
60% |
60% |
59% |
| Toronto |
71% |
66% |
69% |
67% |
| Ottawa |
74% |
69% |
71% |
68% |
| Montreal |
71% |
68% |
70% |
67% |
| Quebec
City |
68% |
63% |
65% |
64% |
| Halifax/Dartmouth |
74% |
73% |
74% |
72% |
| CANADA |
65% |
62% |
64% |
63% |
Average
Daily Rates in Major Urban Markets |
| City |
2000 Actual |
2001 Actual |
2001 Pre-
9/11 Forecast |
2002 Projection |
| Vancouver |
$120 |
$120 |
$122 |
$124 |
| Calgary |
$112 |
$107 |
$108 |
$110 |
| Edmonton |
$87 |
$94 |
$97 |
$94 |
| Winnipeg |
$93 |
$96 |
$98 |
$98 |
| Toronto |
$129 |
$129 |
$131 |
$132 |
| Ottawa |
$121 |
$129 |
$131 |
$133 |
| Montreal |
$125 |
$130 |
$133 |
$136 |
| Quebec
City |
$126 |
$139 |
$143 |
$140 |
| Halifax/Dartmouth |
$108 |
$111 |
$111 |
$114 |
| CANADA |
$111 |
$114 |
$116 |
$117 |
REVPAR
in Major Urban Markets |
| City |
2000 Actual |
2001 Actual |
2001 Pre-
9/11 Forecast |
2002 Projection |
| Vancouver |
$78 |
$76 |
$81 |
$81 |
| Calgary |
$73 |
$67 |
$70 |
$70 |
| Edmonton |
$55 |
$63 |
$67 |
$62 |
| Winnipeg |
$59 |
$58 |
$59 |
$58 |
| Toronto |
$91 |
$85 |
$90 |
$88 |
| Ottawa |
$90 |
$89 |
$93 |
$90 |
| Montreal |
$89 |
$88 |
$93 |
$91 |
| Quebec
City |
$86 |
$88 |
$93 |
$90 |
| Halifax/Dartmouth |
$80 |
$81 |
$82 |
$82 |
| CANADA |
$72 |
$71 |
$74 |
$74 |
The events of September 11th had
a significant impact on the performance of the Canadian
Accommodation Industry in 2001. Regardless, we believe
that much of the demand lost as a result of these events,
will be recovered in 2002. The recovery in demand levels
will be enhanced by modest economic growth. However, with
further increases in supply in 2002, there will be only
modest improvement in occupancy and average rates.
The industry, based on pre-September 11th performance
to the end of August, was on track to end the year at a
64% occupancy and a $116 average daily rate, relative to
a 65% occupancy and a $111 average daily rate in 2000.
Demand was up about 1%, and average daily rates were up
4.5% to the end of August. With supply up about 2%, occupancy
was down one percentage point. The industry ended
the year at a 62% occupancy and a $114 average daily rate. Relative
to 2000, demand was down almost 3%, and average daily rates
were up only 3%. Year end results were down two percentage
points in occupancy and two dollars in average rates relative
to pre-September 11th forecasts at the end of
August.
At a national level our forecasts for 2002
reflect a recovery of the demand lost in the last four
months of 2001, with demand levels up 3% over actual 2001
levels. With a further 1.5% increase in supply in 2002,
occupancy will improve to 63%, but will still be below
last year’s pre-September 11th performance. Average
daily rates are forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2002 over
actual 2001 levels, but will be up only 1% relative to
pre-September 11th forecasts at the end of August.
Our projections for individual markets reflect
our general view of demand recovery, but are also reflective
of the specific supply and demand factors impacting each
market.
